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Re: [ARSCLIST] The Evolution of the Music Business



I too agree with the general thrust of Tom's analysis. But I would like to point out that on average physical goods still accounted for
80% of the approximately 500+ million albums that were sold in the US market in 2007. In 2008 that percentage is diminishing steadily as it has been for years and for some releases like the recent Coldplay album the hard/digital split is more like 70/30 which is a major change. But I do think that the physical CD will persist as a legacy format and until we start getting higher res digital delivery platforms it will remain the more desirable format for people who actually care what music sounds like. I am of course thrilled by the much vaunted vinyl resurgence and think that will only continue to flourish as a modest but hearty segment of the overall marketplace. I also think that the CD, especially a brilliantly executed one like /Lateralus /by Tool, or /Stadium Arcadium/ by the Chili Peppers will remain a viable format especially as a keepsake for the concert experience. However, I do think that the flash drive represents an extremely interesting tributary for the delivery of media-rich content and one that I am currently exploring.


AA



Mark Jenkins wrote:
Tom,

I totally agree with all of your statements below.  In fact, it's the
direction that our company is working towards (we're not selling direct
to the consumer yet, but I do see the day when this will happen, and
similar to the way you describe).  Up to this point iTunes has
discouraged variable track pricing (for some unknown reason), but we
manipulate our album pricing to make it a much more reasonable deal for
the consumer (obviously, at this point, in the US, the mechanical
copyright costs are a limiting factor, because on digital downloads in
the US, the full statutory PHYSICAL mechanical rate of US$0.091 per
track is being collected in exchange for clearance by Harry Fox, even
though (as of yet--but probably this fall this will change) there is no
statutory rate for digital downloads.  I personally would love to see a
viable lossless format for downloads, in ALL genres (there are a few
classical sites that do this on a limited basis, of course) as an
alternative to iTunes, and I think this is something we will be looking
at as a company in the near future, whether via FLAC, .aiff or .wav.

In regards to your comment about de-leveraging manufacturing and
distribution assets, we did that as a company 7 or 8 years ago. All
warehousing and manufacturing for us is done by third parties, and even
inventory doesn't shift to our books necessarily upon manufacture (it
depends on rate of sale, time of year when manufactured--a lot of the
summer is utilized by pressing plants in anticipating product needs in
the 4th quarter, and it allows them more efficient ways of utilizing
their equipment and staff, but the excess inventory may remain on their
books until needed).


The valuation of content companies will, of course, be more predictable
and definable the more that digital becomes the greater share of the
business.  Instead of inventory, returns, and other factors that are
currently factors in valuing content companies, these will be replaced
by a more manageable, definable revenue stream which the marketplace can
depend upon.  The profitability issue, as you are correct on in regards
to today's marketplace, will also undergo some revision as some of the
"shotgun" disadvantages of launching new artists (millions of unsold
units of inventory, for example) are taken out of the picture.


Mark Jenkins
President, Licensing Division
Madacy Entertainment LP/Countdown Media


-----Original Message-----
From: Association for Recorded Sound Discussion List
[mailto:ARSCLIST@xxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Tom Fine
Sent: Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:37 AM
To: ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] Wonderful Mercury Reissues

I think, if Big Music is to ever save itself, it will eventually get out
of the manufactured-CD business except for huge hits sold at Wal-Mart and the equiv. in other
countries. Niche-market stuff like Classical and Jazz will be sold as downloadable digital files. Now,
the key question is -- what's the profitable play? I think the copyright owners should sell
CD-quality (or better) downloads directly to the public, at $1 per song or $10 per album, and
include downloads of printable, high resolution graphics so those so inclined can burn and
make art for a close proximity of a real CD. Amazon is already driving down the price of lossy-format,
low-quality downloads and I can see these settling at 25-50 cents per song or about $5 or less per
album, which is more of a reasonable price (although I still wouldn't pay my own money for
low-grade lossy formats of anything that sounds the least bit decent). Thus iTunes and Amazon can fight over
the commodity price of lossy formats and the copyright owners could retain the full-quality
market and price it to be profitable (if they can make money off $15 CD's, with manufacturing
infrastructure having to be supported, distribution networks taking a cut and retailers taking a
cut, surely they can make more money at $10 downloads sold right to the public -- if not, they will
never have a viable business model).


If I were making strategic decisions for a large copyright holder, I
would begin now by de-leveraging my manufacturing and distribution assets. The thinking is
-- let 3rd parties hold the real estate, labor costs and capital of production plants and warehouses
and contract-manufacture the few dozen titles a year that will sell enough copies to justify
distribution thru the Wal-Marts of the world. Everything else (and I do mean _everything_ that's in the
vaults) would be sold direct-to-consumer as downloads. The revenue structure changes to more
of a annuity than quarterly quests for hits, so perhaps this business model is not what Wall Street
would prefer, at first. But, over time, if it's run right, the revenue stream starts to resemble a
utility company and such things as reliable dividends can be set up and thus the stock becomes a
good long-term play. The key thing Wall Street has to get out of its system is the myth that the
music business is wildly profitable -- it's not and it never has been. Hits are a fluke,
slow-building revenue over time is the rule, especially with niche genres like classical and jazz. With
popular music, the profitability of mega-hits is eroded by all the misses in a catalog each
year.


-- Tom Fine

----- Original Message ----- From: "Steve Abrams" <steve.abrams@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2008 8:30 PM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] Wonderful Mercury Reissues



When I tried ordering from Archiv a few years ago they were not
sending anything abroad.
I have found that I can frequently obtain CDs from Amazon.Com at
better prices than ordering from
the UK.

For example, the most recent Living Stereo SACDs are 11.98 USD, with
several a dollars less and
older items at less than 9 USD. Shipping to the UK is 3 USD. Most
items can be bought new at
lower prices from associate sellers. By contrast the price for recent
issues from Amazon UK is
13.99 GBP plus 1.24 GBP shipping. That is the equivalent of 30.5 USD,
nearly three times the
price. The records sold by Amazon UK are pressed in Europe. Also
shipping from America is almost
as fast as from the UK.

UK prices do include 17.5 per cent "purchase tax."

Buying records directly in the UK I have had the best luck with a firm
called Crotchet, who also
send records abroad. Otherwise I buy directly from companies such as
Symposium and Preiser. I
have also had good luck dealing directly (by email) with Bongiovanni
in Italy.
Steve Abrams


----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Fine" <tflists@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 17, 2008 12:31 AM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] Wonderful Mercury Reissues



You are correct, some of the newer ArkivCD's do indeed have full
booklets. But the Mercury were
in the original ArkivCD series and unless they started reproducing
the booklets somewhere along
the lines, they did not as of a year or so ago.

As for shipping to Europe, I wonder if that has to do with specific
ArkivCD license agreements --
were you ordering a BMG/Sony title the time you had trouble?

Here in the states, I've had generally good luck tracking down "new
and used" options on Amazon
for out-of-print classical stuff, but not always. Some titles are
ridiculously expensive used and
one then wonders what genius bean-counter at Big Music Co X decided
to take it out of print if it
obviously is still in demand enough to command high prices used. But
many other titles can be had
cheaper than original street prices, sometimes still shrink-wrapped.
There are a few companies,
Newbury Comics, ImportCD's, etc, that must have bought out inventory
from dead record-store
chains at pennies on the dollar and can now sell out-of-print but
still shrinkwrapped titles for
$5-8 each. For instance, I was able to get several titles from the
original RCA Living Stereo
reissue CD's that are now out of print but never issued on hybrid
SACD's for a few bucks each,
still new in the wrapping and not RCA Music Club editions. Same with
several of the late 90's
Decca Originals reissues.

None of this is to cast any aspersions on ArkivCD -- those guys are
doing a great service to
music and music fans.

-- Tom Fine


----- Original Message ----- From: "Steve Abrams" <steve.abrams@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2008 6:56 PM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] Wonderful Mercury Reissues



Some Arkiv reissues are now being produced with booklets. I just
purchased my first Arkiv
edition - the RCA transfer of the 1947 recording of "Four Saints in
Three Acts". This CD was
never available in Europe, so far as I know, and has become quite
difficult to find second hand.
The transfer is excellent and the 32 page booklet with Gertrude
Stein's libretto is included.
There was no problem ordering from the UK. Some time back when I
tried ordering from Arkiv they
would not sent stuff abroad.

SA TTTTTTT

----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Fine" <tflists@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2008 10:39 PM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] Wonderful Mercury Reissues



The ArkivCD's should be CDR "clones" of now-out-of-catalog CD's. I
tried a couple and they
sound fine to my ears, keeping in mind that CDR media can be more
fragile than manufactured
CD's. Too bad they don't reproduce the booklets, which were sweated
over profusely. Since
Universal chose to take so much of the catalog out of print, this
is the only way to hear a lot
of this material if you missed the original CD's. Arkiv does a nice
job keeping the brand
alive. By the way, they have also reissued a bunch of other
Universal material, particularly
Decca and DGG. And they have a bunch of EMI and Sony/BMG reissues
out there also. I think the
ArkivCD program is now well north of 2000 titles.

-- Tom Fine

----- Original Message ----- From: "Roderic G Stephens" <savecal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2008 12:06 PM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] Wonderful Mercury Reissues



Hi All,

I've been very pleased with my Arkiv CD purchases in
the past, but I thought you all should know about the
Mercuries that are being reissued by the label, and
I'd be interested in any comments regarding them by
Tom Fine.

This is from an email I just received from them:

"It's been an audiophile extravaganza this month at
ArkivMusic, with our sales on the fabulous BIS label
from Sweden (lots of titles back in stock!) and the
RCA Classic Film Scores series (my favorites this week
are the film scores for Errol Flynn and the Prince
Valiant Suite from Franz Waxman).
We round out the month with one of the most
fascinating audiophile labels of all, Mercury Living
Presence. Mercury was a special label in many ways, an
American company, from the heyday of classical
recording in the U.S., that reproduced some of the
most sonically realistic sounds at the dawn of the
stereo era. Precious few stereo LPs were pressed when
these recordings were issued, and they became some of
the rarest and most collectible classical discs ever.
ArkivMusic has now reissued over 60 releases from the
Mercury catalog, all of which are on sale for a
limited time."

Rod Stephens

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Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized.

****************************************************************************




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